SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW 
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 1, 2019
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Still no sunspots, but average daily solar flux rose this week from
65.3 to 68.5. Yet there have been surprising reports of HF stations
heard and worked over long distances. However, the second-hand
report in last week's bulletin about a local station in my area
working Belarus and Lithuania on 10 meters in the middle of the
night turned out to be a misunderstanding, and I am sorry I reported
it.

On Friday and Saturday a coronal hole let loose a solar wind stream
causing geomagnetic instability, and the average daily planetary A
index for the week rose from 4.7 last week to 16.4.

Predicted solar flux has increased recently, with values of 70 on
November 1-8, 66 on November 9-23, 70 on November 24 through
December 6, and 69 on December 7-15.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 1, 5 on November 2-4,
8, 10 and 8 on November 5-7, 5 on November 8-16, then 15, 8 and 5 on
November 17-19, then 20 and 24 on November 20-21, 15 on November
22-23, 12 on November 24, 5 and 15 on November 25-26, 12 on November
27-28, and 5 on November 29 through December 15.

This weekend is the ARRL CW Sweepstakes contest, and conditions look
favorable with a rising solar flux (it was 71.2 on Thursday) and
moderate geomagnetic conditions.

OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period
November 1-26, 2019.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on: November 9, 13, 18-19
Quiet to unsettled on: November 1-2, 4-5, 10-11, 15
Quiet to active on: November 3, 8, 12, 14, 16, 25 
Unsettled to active on: November 6 (-7), 17, 20, 24, 26 
Active to disturbed: November 21-23

"Solar wind will intensify on: November (6-9,) 13, 21-26, (27-29).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Jeff, N8II in West Virginia reported: "Tuesday through Thursday this
week. Oct. 22-24, was pretty amazing on 15M especially considering
the extremely low solar flux. I think it was Thursday that was the
best when on 15M SSB I worked several European Russian stations
including R1DA/M, Ukraine, Finland, Norway, several UK stations
including a mobile running 5 watts who was peaking S9! The QSOs were
between 1345Z and 1420Z.

"On Thursday afternoon around 1800Z, I waited for VP6R on Pitcairn
Island to build in strength above the noise on 12M CW and heard an
OH3 and OH5KW in Finland both well above the noise off the back of
my 2 el Yagi work VP6R! Later, about 2200Z there was a roaring huge
pile up on VP6R on 10 meter CW. I made it through after about 7-8
minutes.

"The CQWW today was not nearly so good, but 15M was open all over
Africa and to southern Europe with some very loud signals. I worked
Crete, Greece, Cyprus, Slovenia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy,
Switzerland, Germany (only one), France, Spain, and Portugal and in
Africa, Reunion Island, Canary Islands, Madeira Islands, Morocco,
South Africa, Senegal, Gabon, Namibia, and Cape Verde. All South
American mainland countries were worked except Guyana, and VP6R was
in for hours on end."

N0JK reported on October 27:

"The VP6R DXpedition has been audible a couple of days in Kansas on
10 meters, usually at or just above the noise floor. But on October
27 VP6R was very strong, over S-9 at 2050z.

"Starting around 2030z on October 27, VP6R had a strong opening
across much of North America on 10 Meters. VP6R was much louder
than the scattered South America and Central America stations
popping in on afternoon TEP. Signals seemed to peak in Kansas
between 2045-2110z. VP6R was running the table, a golden opportunity
for anyone who needed Pitcairn on 10.

"Then VP6R started dropped into the noise around 2110z. KF0M Wichita
worked VP6R near the end of the opening. During the peak I worked a
loud KY7M in Arizona on Es, and heard W2HZ Tucson, AZ (both sides of
contact) work VP6R. Thus Es was present on 10 Meters. While Arizona
is a little west of the Great Circle path to Pitcairn Island, I
suspect that the strong October 27 opening was an Es link on to TEP.
That can explain the loud signals and how the opening turned on and
off 'like a switch.' Was 6 open to Pitcairn from North America?
Maybe. Es links to TEP took place on 6 Meters October 17 from the
Central USA to South America. The only spot I noted during this
period on 6 was a FT8 local contact between AC2PB and a N3."

Mike May, WB8VLC of Salem, Oregon wrote: "Certainly weird condx on
HF for sure with such low numbers yet still DX contacts can be made
on all HF bands.

"I am rethinking my HF operation vs low solar numbers after this
month's 10 meter and other band QSOs from my CN84 'black hole' QTH
in Northwest Oregon with low height small antennas and low to
moderate power but none of this has been a hindrance for me.

"Most sigs have been very readable with minimal fading and low noise
and no real struggle QSOs.

"My antennas: on 10 meters I use a short boom 4 el home brew Yagi at
30 feet and 300 watts.

"On 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters I am using home brew antennas at just
22 feet height on a single push up mast and 300-400 watts.

"I put up a moxon on 12-20 meters depending on the desired band so
there are no fancy multiband Yagis used here in my postage stamp
city lot.

"On the lower HF bands I use verticals for 30-40 meters and
inverted Ls for 60 and 80 meters with just 16 radials and just 50
watts on these 4 bands but still QSOs are being made from my sea
level QTH on all these bands.

"Here is just a sample of the HF dx operation from September to
October and I'm mainly a weekend operator. [Long lists of many
stations worked were edited out here-Ed.]

"On 12 to 60 meters I have worked the ZK3 on CW/SSB/FT8, 10-30
meters CW/SSB the VP6R, A82Z on 17 SSB/FT8, C21WW 20,17 CW, SSB, FT8
and other.

"The 60 and 80 meter QSOs were the first time since I was licensed
in 1975 that I was ever on these 2 bands.

"On just 10 meter SSB, on every weekend there are a good deal of SSB
contacts to be made from my Oregon CN84 QTH to South America, mainly
to PY, CE, CX and LU stations.

"Low solar indices and still contacts galore, I don't know what to
think about the correlation but I'm not complaining, keep up the
good work and 73."

Griff, NE3I reported on October 26: "Conditions on 75 and 40 at the
beginning of the CQWW SSB Contest are the worst I have experienced
in over 50 years as a Radio Amateur. With the exception of some
Canadians on 75, all signals received here in Eastern Pennsylvania
even U.S. stations, are weak and difficult to intelligibly discern
with QSB and S9 noise levels across the entire 75 and 40 Meter
Bands."

This is from John Boudreau, VE8EV in Inuvik, Northwest Territories.
Inuvik is way up there, north of 68 degrees north latitude.

"When I read about the record-setting low solar flux in last week's
report I recalled that the last time I checked in with you was March
2014 at the peak of Solar Cycle 24.

"Back then, from our high-latitude location directly under the
auroral oval, we were experiencing amazing propagation on the upper
bands.

"Now, exactly 5-1/2 years later and with a (mostly) quiet Sun, it is
the lower bands' turn.

"Last Winter I took advantage of the quieter conditions to finish
off 80m for my 5-Band DXCC award and just recently I've managed to
work 14 new countries on 160m, most on the extremely difficult polar
path which, from here, includes everywhere in the Eastern
hemisphere.

"Whichever part of the solar cycle we are at, though, there is no
escaping the effects of a disturbed geomagnetic field right over our
heads. Last weekend during the G2-Level geomagnetic storm caused by
a recurring solar coronal hole, I turned on my radio around 0400z on
Saturday night. Even with the CQ World Wide DX Contest going on, I
could hear only TWO stations (a KH6 and a KL7) coming through on any
of the bands. This can sure be a tough place to play radio!"

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov:

https://youtu.be/p1OHijuoZO8

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 24 through 30, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 65, 68.6, 68.6, 68.8,
69.4, 69.2, and 69.7, with a mean of 68.5. Estimated planetary A
indices were 18, 29, 25, 15, 11, 8, and 9, with a mean of 16.4.
Middle latitude A index was 12, 29, 17, 11, 8, 8, and 6, with a mean
of 13.
NNNN
/EX