SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 5, 2021
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
Sunspot numbers and solar flux index were both declining by the end
of our reporting week (October 28 through November 3), but averages
for both numbers were higher than reported in last week's
Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP044.
Average daily sunspot number increased from 54.9 to 67.6, while
average daily solar flux jumped from 95.7 to 102.
CME activity through the week drove geomagnetic numbers much higher.
Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.4 to 12, and
average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.6 to 9. On
November 4 the planetary A index was 69, and Alaska's College A
index was 131!
Spaceweather.com reported a "cannibal CME" struck Earth at 2000 UTC
on November 3, and that this would spark a strong geomagnetic storm,
and boy, did it ever! With aurora observed in United States down
below the northern tier states, it had a pronounced negative effect
on HF propagation the following day. For a time on Thursday testing
propagation paths using FT8 and pskreporter, I could see no
propagation above 20 meters.
More on that CME:
At 0326 UTC on November 5 the Australian Space Forecast Centre noted
that although conditions have quieted down, a southward turn of the
interplanetary magnetic field may cause another increase in
I received several reports this week that "10 meters is back!"
Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas noted on November 4:
"No (VHF) enhancement in KS from the CME impact yet.
"Last weekend in the CQ WW SSB contest, 10 meters was open both
days. I logged HD8R Galapagos Islands, and other stations using 5
watts and mobile antenna. Best DX D4F.
"ZF5T was very loud Sunday afternoon around 2015 UTC on 10 Meters."
According to a prediction issued by NOAA at 2118 UTC on November 4,
predicted solar flux is 90 on November 5, 85 on November 6-7, 80 on
November 8-12, 88 on November 13-14, 89 on November 15, 92 on
November 16-19, 93 on November 20, 95 on November 21-27, then
jumping to 103, 102, 100 and 98 on November 28 through December 1,
96 on December 2-4, then 92 and 90 on December 5-6, then 88 on
December 7-11, 89 on December 12 and 92 on December 13-16.
Predicted planetary A index is 18, 15, and 8 on November 5-7, 5 on
November 8-14, then 10 and 8 on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-29,
8 on November 30 through December 1, 5 on December 2, then 12, 10
and 8 on December 3-5, then 5 on December 6-11, and 8 on December
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 5 to December
1, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: 18-19, 23, 25
quiet to unsettled on: November 9, 12-13, 17, 20, 22, 24
quiet to active on: November 5, 10-11, 21, 26-27
unsettled to active on: November 6-8, 14, 16, 28
Active to disturbed: November (15, 29,) 30, December 1
"Solar wind will intensify on November (8,) 9-10, (11,) 16-17,
(29-30), December (1-2,) 3-4.
"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
A report from Southgate Amateur Radio News:
"It certainly has been a great past month. DXpeditions have resumed,
quite a few to Africa and all of them worked on 12 and 10M. C5C, The
Gambia is also active, and TL7M, Central African Republic heard on
12M, 15M, and 20M CW. 7P8RU is a Russian group worked on 30M through
10M CW and 17M and 12M SSB. Hearing Russia and Scandinavia on 15M
has been nearly a daily occurrence. 12M has been open to EU daily
for about the last 10 days. South America is in daily on 10M with
best conditions around 1900-2000 UTC. 15M begins opening to EU
around 1240 UTC.
"1645 UTC most EU are gone now. 12M signals vary day to day with
quite a few new countries going into the log such as Kuwait, Israel,
Norway, Sweden, Finland, Faeroe Islands, Gibraltar, and Guernsey
many on both SSB and CW. CW countries on 12M now are 103 vs. about
80 before September, 15M now 198, and 10M CW countries now 98.
"There was a major solar storm forecast for the CQWW Phone contest
October 30-31. When the K index peaked at 5 at 1500 UTC on the 31st,
we were working loud Europeans from even northern EU. At the start
of the contest I was on 20M and very strangely SA and Caribbean
signals were way down with decent conditions to East Asia excluding
Japan. I heard about 9 Chinese stations in just over the first hour
putting 3 into the log including S9+20dB B0A from rare zone 23. I
also heard the Philippines, worked RN0CT in Zone 19, 7Q6M Malawi,
and D4L Cape Verde in first hour.
"Saturday morning 15M was opening around 1120Z to EU. There were
loud signals from all over EU, and Kazakhstan was heard. At 1329Z, I
switched to 10M and found a few Europeans, first worked were
Hungary, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and very loud E7AA in Bosnia. The
opening was spotlight type to relatively small areas most in the
Mediterranean (many from Sicily). EW5A in Belarus was the only
northern EU logged at 1414 UTC for Zone 16.
"Right around 1430 UTC, EU faded out. I worked A73A Qatar on a peak,
and SA began to come through with signals poor at first with some
good by 1450 UTC. Despite strong signals from Paraguay, Chile, and
Argentina, Brazil was not found loud enough to work until 1725 UTC,
then there were many through the afternoon until my 2210 UTC sunset.
I was lucky to catch ZM4T New Zealand and VK4A right around sunset
for Zones 32 and 30.
"Sunday, I was not expecting much with the rising K index, but 15M
sounded pretty normal and I logged my first EU EA1L Spain at 1228
UTC on 10.
"It was a struggle to work many stations because of better
conditions for stations farther NE in NA. I caught 7P8RU in Lesotho
at 1255 UTC. After a short break the 10M band blew wide open at 1339
UTC with many calls from western EU, quite a few Dutch and German
stations. TK5MH called from Corsica and 4U1A called from the Vienna
International Center. Then gradually northern EU filled finding OH0V
Aland Islands, and with calls from Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark,
Estonia, Norway, and lastly Finland in the 1500 UTC hour.
"The K index was 5 reported at 1500 UTC, very strange to be able to
work so far north, possibly auroral Es. Most of EU finally faded by
1656 UTC, quite an opening, the best of Solar Cycle 25 so far.
"73, Jeff N8II Shepherdstown, WV FM19cj"
From Mike May WB8VLC Salem Oregon:
"During CQ WW SSB last weekend, 10 meters was sounding like nothing
I have heard in 20 years with some Europe in the morning then the
typical South America in the afternoon.
"The evening of Saturday October 30 was the best Asia opening I have
heard on 10 with 28.3 to 29 MHz filled with JA stations. The most
interesting were the other Asian DX worked aside from Japan, VR2XAN
in Hong Kong and DY1T in Philippines who were both in here for
around 1 hour at 59 plus along with other big signals from Hawaii,
New Zealand, Australia, Guam, Mariana Islands and even some weak
China on 10 meters."
Mike sent a long list of stations with S9 signals on 10 meter SSB,
including Cape Verde, Guam, Portugal, Madeira, Galapagos and Brazil.
"Even 10 FM was active!"
From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:
"10 meters was the surprise band on this weekend's contest. I always
start on the band and rack up the South Americans, about 26 in an
hour which is almost three-fold compared to last year. After working
some on 15 meters at 1200 UTC, for an hour, wow 10 meters was
teaming with life like 5 years ago! Worked a few Europeans in half
an hour and went and go during the day, including an FR about 1433
"It was not until Sunday morning that 10 got interesting, when I did
work early E7AA (who worked only on 10 and my only Bosnia QSO). Then
ZD7, 7P, OH0, 7Q, EA9, pretty easy with just low power. At 1930 UTC
turned my antenna (manually) towards USA and called on 28.392 MHz:
56 stations in an hour, 98% US.
"Can't wait for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest 2021!"
From Simon, GW0NVN:
"Here at Finningley Amateur Radio Society G0GHK, we were shown what
the Sun can do on Sunday 31st October. Switched to 10m during
breakfast to hear a number of strong stations including VK6 having a
rag chew and working a few European stations. Coming back to 10m in
the afternoon, we had an over 1.5 hour pile up of W and VE
An exciting update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.
This weekend is ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest.
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Sunspot numbers for October 28 through November 3, 2021 were 96, 82,
76, 83, 53, 42, and 41, with a mean of 67.6. 10.7 cm flux was 111.7,
108.4, 107.2, 102.7, 97.7, 97, and 89, with a mean of 102. Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 3, 10, 20, 10, 17, and 21, with a mean
of 12. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 8, 16, 8, 12, and 14, with
a mean of 9.