SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP48
QST de W1AW 
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 30, 2018
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

At 2335 UTC on November 28 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning for December 1. "The
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a large and recurrent
coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity to minor storm
levels on December 1 and 2."

Sunspots appeared on only two days over the past reporting week, the
weekend of November 24-25, with sunspot numbers of 14 and 15. 
Average daily sunspot number compared to the previous seven days
declined from 9.4 to 4.1, while average daily solar flux went from
70.8 to 68.9.

It seems odd, but both the average daily planetary and mid-latitude
A index remained the same as last week's numbers, 3.3 and 2.1,
respectively.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 68 on November 30
through December 12, 70 on December 13-27, 68 on December 28 through
January 8, and 70 on January 9-13.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on November 30, then 24, 28, 12 and
10 on December 1-4, 8 on December 5-6, then 12, 12 and 8 on December
7-9, 5 on December 10-16, 8 on December 17-18, 5 on December 19-22,
8 on December 23-24, 5 on December 25-27, 16 and 24 on December
28-29, 10 on December 30-31, 8 on January 1-2, 12 on January 3-4, 8
on January 5, then 5 on January 6-12 and 8 on January 13.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period November 30 to December 26, 2018.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 30, December 10, 12-15, 19-22, 26
Quiet to unsettled on December 16, 18, 23, 25
Quiet to active on December 3-4, 9, 11, 24
Unsettled to active on December 1, (5-6,) 7-8, 17
Active to disturbed on December 2

Solar wind will intensify on November 30 and on December 1-3, (4-6,)
7-9, (10-12, 15-18,) 24-25

Remark: Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
enhancement."

The latest from Dr. Skov:

https://youtu.be/GXKTsNMMkug

Mark Lunday, WD4ELG reported last Friday, November 23 (too late for
last week's bulletin) in a message titled Excellent Conditions on
the Higher Bands, "FT8 15 meters, barefoot with a dipole, easily
worked 5R8 (Malagasy) and 3B8 (Mauritius). Also copied FR (Europa,
San Juan de Nova, Glorioso, Tromelin or Reunion Island). While
Europe has been heard daily, and even ZS (South Africa) at least 2
or 3 times a week, it has been awhile since I heard Indian Ocean on
15 meters."

Steve Sacco, NN4X of Saint Cloud, Florida reported "I had a QSO with
4K6FO (Azerbaijan) on 160M during the contest (CQ WW CW), on 11/24 @
03:40Z.

It was an amazing little opening - I was listening to him for a bit,
as his signal slowly got stronger, and then commenced calling him.
Then I realized that nobody else in NA was calling. I was able to
work him, and I stuck around to listen for a bit more, and noticed
that - STILL - no NA was calling him.

Turns out, he had NO OTHER QSOs with the western hemisphere on 160M
during the contest."

Jeff, N8II reported from West Virginia:

"We sort of hit a new low in the CQWW CW contest this past weekend,
I was not able to work any DX on 10M. Some guys in the USA reported
generally less than 5 DX QSOs. 15M was worse than last year, but
strangely as in the WW phone on 15M there was a 15M opening to
Scandinavia east to the Baltic States. 20 was great into Europe,
wide open from before 12Z until starting to fading around 17Z.

K3LR reported 11 DX QSOs plus 2 Canadians (probably nearby in ON)
on 10 meters, pretty close to dead."

Later Jeff reported:

"It was the best of times (20M into EU); it was the worst of times
(most all of the other bands, no F2 on 10M). I can never remember
working no DX on 10M in the CQWW, a new low!

160M signals seemed much worse than some years with SFI 75-100
Nothing was heard from anywhere outside of Canada Sunday near
sunrise. Most QSOs were with the Caribbean and northern edge of
SA. A few of the loudest EU stations (including 1 Russian) heard
me, nothing from Pacific Sunday near sunrise. The big guns did
pretty well on 160, 96 countries worked at K3LR (per 3830scores
report).

I had noise on 80 loud enough to cover over the weakest stations,
but many I could hear could not copy me. EU is much louder here in
Nov. when the solar flux is higher. Working the West Africans was
easy. Near sunrise Sunday sounded really poor, did work 2
Hawaiians. I never tried much CQing, knew it would not bear fruit.
The noise did not hurt the results much. K3LR worked 122 countries
and 1558 QSO's, amazing!

Signals on 40M Saturday around sunset were fairly weak, very weak at
2220Z. By 24Z southern EU sounded much better. Near sunrise on
Sunday was disappointing, no readable Japanese. I could not work
anything from Asia; I heard Finland, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and
western Asiatic Russia long path. All weekend, conditions seemed
poor or closed to northern EU. Western Africa was loud working
Morocco, Canary Is., Madeira Is. There were many Caribbean and
South Americans with good to loud signals.

20 meters was definitely my money band. Between about 1145Z-1630Z
conditions to Europe were superb both days with no fade down due to
absorption. Saturday afternoon, we were treated to extended hours
into EU with good signals from most of EU. It was amazing to work
Russians at bottom of cycle near midnight their time, probably some
auroral sporadic E propagation! The opening favored farther west in
NA, but I picked up Aland Is. and Kazakhstan. At the same time,
conditions were excellent to all of Africa with activity from all
zones except 34 (Libya/Egypt), the Caribbean and South America with
many countries added to my log.

Notable rare countries logged were Rwanda, Madagascar, Senegal,
Kenya, Uganda, and Fernando de Noronha I. There were a few Japanese
around sunset, but signals were down from just before the contest.
Micronesia was worked. Sunday afternoon, I worked A35, Tonga short
path (very weak), FK8, New Caledonia and VK2, Australia long path.
I finished with 929 20M QSO's.

15 was frustrating but interesting for sure. I worked almost
exactly 100 QSO's less than last year and 8 less mults. But, there
was a decent opening to NE EU just as on phone this year. Normally,
this is quite rare recently, we had good luck. I caught Norway,
Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Russia and farther
south Ukraine and Moldova (first QSO of day at 1233Z) on Sunday.
Best conditions were in 1400Z hour. I also had good luck with AF,
both 5R, Madagascar and 3B8, Mauritius in zone 39, Senegal in 35,
Rwanda in 36, South Africa in 38, and many zone 33 in NW Africa. I
could not break the OX, Greenland pile up, signal S9. Signals from
Germany west to England was pretty marginal, the openings definitely
were of a spotlight nature. The Pacific was pretty punk, nothing
other than Hawaii and New Zealand worked. Skip was generally quite
long to the south making the northern Caribbean difficult to work."

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for November 22 through 28, 2018 were 0, 0, 14, 15,
0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 4.1. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 69.2, 70,
69.6, 68.6, 68.4, and 67.5, with a mean of 68.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 3, 4, 3, 2, 5, and 3, with a mean of
3.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 1, 2, 3, 2, 4, and 2,
with a mean of 2.1.
NNNN
/EX