The K7RA Solar Update

We saw no sunspots during this reporting week, March 22-28. The previous week had sunspots on only three days, with an average of 5.6.

Average daily solar flux receded from 69.3 to 68.2. Average daily planetary A index dropped from 14.4 to 10.6, and average mid-latitude A index declined from 11.3 to 8.9.

Predicted solar flux is 70 on March 30 to April 15, 69 on April 16, 68 on April 17-29, 69 on April 30, then 70 on May 1-12 and 69 on May 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on March 30, 5 on March 31 to April 4, then 8 and 12 on April 5-6, 5 on April 7-9, then 8, 15 and 20 on April 10-12, 15 on April 13-15, then 8, 5 and 5 on April 16-18, then 15, 1 and 15 on April 19-21, then 18, 10 and 5 on April 22-24, then 15, 12 and 8 on April 25-27, 5 on April 28 through May 6, then 8, 15 and 20 on May 7-9, 15 on May 10-12 and 8 on May 13.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent this geomagnetic activity forecast for the period March 30 to April 24, 2018.

“Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on April 1-2, 4, 8-9, 24

Mostly quiet on March 30, April 5

Quiet to unsettled on March 31, April 3, 7, 16-19, 23

Quiet to active on April 6, 10-11, 13, 15, 21-22

Active to disturbed on April 12, 14, (20)

Solar wind will intensify on March (31,) April (6-8,) 10-18, 23-25

Remark:

- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

- With regard to ongoing changes, current forecasts are less reliable again.”

Jon Jones, N0JK, sent this on March 26: “Remarkable propagation on both 6 and 10 meters despite a SFI of only 68. On March 23, 6 meters opened between North America and CE, LU.

“Ken, AC4TO, in Florida worked CE4WJK and CE2SV.

“CE2SV     18/03/23 2242Z  50313.0 EM28 F2 FF47 CQ FT8 one decode      N0JK        

CE2SV     18/03/23 2212Z  50313.0 ft8                             LU4FPZ    

CE2SV     18/03/23 2203Z  50102.0 579 in EM70 Thanks!             AC4TO     

“I saw a spot by K0TPP for CE2SV on 50.313 MHz. I copied one decode from CE2SV ~ 2240z. Probably afternoon TEP for AC4TO, possibly an Es link from the Midwest to TEP.

“The geomagnetic field was active with the Kp to 4.

“Conditions were good in the CQ WPX SSB on 10 meters March 24. Central and South American stations were loud to eastern Kansas around 1930z and put 15 stations in the log with 5 watts and mobile 1/4 wave whip. Conditions not as good Sunday, though YV1KK was 20 dB over S9 at 2000z. At 2114z CE7VPQ was very loud on 10 and I was his contact # 480.

“AC4TO heard CE again on 6 meters about the same time:

CE2SV      18/03/25 2139Z  50102.0 Heard CQ agn                   AC4TO”

This arrived just a little late for last week’s bulletin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93FaZY4Qqho

And this arrived just in time for this week’s bulletin: https://youtu.be/a79X7nM-gyw

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for March 22 through 28, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.5, 68.1, 67.6, 68.3, 67.8, 68.3, and 68.6, with a mean of 69.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 17, 9, 17, 12, 9, and 3, with a mean of 14.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 15, 7, 15, 10, 7, and 2, with a mean of 11.3.