The K7RA Solar Update
"A glancing blow from a recent CME is expected to arrive late on UT
day 28-Jun. Additional to this, solar wind parameter Bz has been
oriented southward for approximately 15 hours. Combined this may
induce G1 geomagnetic conditions. A second CME is expected to arrive
late on UT day 29-Jun and may also cause G1 geomagnetic conditions.
"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 28-29 JUNE 2024."
Nine new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, June
20-26.
Two appeared on June 21, four on June 23, two more on June 25 and
one on June 26.
Average daily sunspot number declined from 149.6 to 141.6, but
average daily solar flux increased from 178 to 195.1.
Average planetary A index declined from 10.3 to 7.
Predicted solar flux for the near term is 182 on June 28-30, then
180, 185, 180, 175, and 190 on July 1-5, 180 on July 6-7, then 165,
165 and 180 on July 8-10, 170 on July 11-13, then 180, 190 and 195
on July 14-16, then 200 on July 17-18, 195 on July 19-20, 190 on
July 21-28, then 195, 190, 185 and 190 on July 29 through August 1,
and 180 on August 2-3.
Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 15 on June 28-29, 5 on June 30
through July 13, then 10, 10 and 8 on July 14-16, 5 on July 17-19, 8
on July 20, then 5 on July 21-26, 8 on July 27-28, and 5 on July 29
to August 9.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 28 - July 04,
2024, from Tomas Bayer, RWC Prague, Institute of Geophysics of the
ASCR, Prague, Department of Geomagnetism Budkov observatory (BDV):
"Quiet: June 30 to July 1, 3 and 4
"Unsettled: June 28 and 29, July 1 and 2
"Active: possible June 28 and 29, July 2
"Minor storm: 0
"Major storm: 0
"Severe storm: 0
"Next week, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions. Two unsettled
to active events are possible next week.
"The first one is possible about June 28 - 29, and the other one,
but unlikely, about July 2. Other days, we expect quiet to unsettled
conditions."
George Hoffman, W7POE, wrote in an email:
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Четверг, 21.11.2024, 10:42
