The K7RA Solar Update – 10/26/2018

We saw no sunspots during the reporting week, October 18-24, so average daily sunspot number dropped from 12.6 to zero. The dearth of sunspots continued Thursday, October 25.

Average daily solar flux declined from 71 to 70.4. Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index declining from 7.4 to 3.3, and average daily middle latitude A index dropping from 7.3 to 2.1. 

Predicted solar flux is 68 on October 25 to November 5, 70 on November 6-18, 69 on November 19-20, 68 on November 21 to December 2, and 70 on December 3-9. 

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 26-28, 8 on October 29-30, 5 on October 31 through November 2, then 22 and 20 on November 3-4, 15 on November 5-6, then 8, 5, 12, 8 and 10 on November 7-11, 5 on November 12-13, 12 on November 14, 5 on November 15-17, then 6, 5 and 12 on November 18-20, 8 on November 21-22, then 5, 8 and 12 on November 23-25, 5 on November 26-29, then 22 and 20 on November 30 through December 1, 15 on December 2-3, then 8, 5, 12, 8, 10 and 5 on December 4-9.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 26 to November 21, 2018 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on October 27, November 2, 13, 15-19

Quiet to unsettled on October 26, 30-31, November 1, 8, 10, 12, 14, 21

Quiet to active on October 29, November 11, 20

Unsettled to active on October 28, November 5-7, 9

Active to disturbed on November 3-4

Solar wind will intensify on October 30-31, November 3-6, (7-9,) 10-13.

Remarks:

– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

– Present changes in the configuration of active areas decreases predictability and their compilation is difficult.

Jon Jones, N0JK, worked K5TR during the meteor shower on 50.260 MHz using WSJT mode on the morning (local time in Kansas) of October 22. K5TR also worked W0LGQ.

Jon wrote, “The majority of stations on Ping Jockey are now using WSJT-X v 2.0. It is not backward compatible with earlier versions of WSJT-X. The new meteor scatter WSJT-X frequency is 50.280 MHz. I had a sked earlier with K1JT (he and I both using older versions of WSJT-X, but we did not complete). K1JT suggested upgrading to v 2.0.”

The CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest is this weekend. See https://www.cqww.com/ .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 18 through 24, 2018 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.5, 69.6, 70.4, 71, 70.9, 71.6, and 69.7, with a mean of 70.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 2, 4, 6, 4, and 3, with a mean of 3.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 0, 1, 0, 4, 5, 3, and 2, with a mean of 2.1.