SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW 
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA June 5, 2020
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Two new sunspots emerged this week, with a one-day gap on Tuesday
with no sunspots. Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 0 last
week to 3.3 in this week, May 28 through June 3.
 
Seems odd, but average daily solar flux was 69.6, unchanged from the
previous seven days. Average daily planetary A index rose from 4 to
6, but average middle latitude A index was 5.7, same as last week.
 
Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 72 on June 5 to 12, 70
on June 13 to 20, 71 on June 21 to July 4, 70 on July 5 to 17, and
71 on July 18 and 19.
 
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 5 through July 19. That's
right, quiet with the A index at 5 on every single day over the next
six and a half weeks.
 
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 5 to 30, 2020 from
F. K. Janda, OK1HH.
 
"Geomagnetic field will be: 
Quiet on: June 5, 10, 12 and 13, 19, 22 to 25, 27, 30
Quiet to unsettled on: June 6 and 7, (8 and 9,) 11, 14 to 18, 20
and 21, 28 and 29
Quiet to active on: (June 26)
Unsettled to active on: nothing predicted 
Active to disturbed: nothing predicted
 
Solar wind will intensify on: June (6 and 7, 16 and 17, 26 and 29)
 
Remarks: 
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
enhancement. 
- The predictability of changes remains lower as there are no
indications."
 
K5ND noted on June 1:
 
"I'm sure you've heard already about the extraordinary six meter
activity this past weekend. I've heard about a big opening early
Sunday morning from the Pacific Northwest into Alaska and Japan.
Later that morning I experienced a big opening into Europe from here
in North Texas. With 140 watts and 3-element Yagi at 20 feet I
managed to work 7 new DXCC entities. Was that ever exciting.
Here's my full write up:"
 
https://www.k5nd.net/2020/05/magic-band-europe-opening-may-31-2020/
 
Steve Sacco, NN4X reported on May 30:
 
"We had some fascinating conditions Friday evening, before and at
the start of the WPX CW.
 
Before the contest, folks were reporting hearing/working EU on 10M
here on the east coast - which is very late, even during the top of
the sunspot cycle.
 
In central Florida, we experienced tremendous lightning QRN at the
start of the contest, but awhile later, I was stunned to hear and
work EU, coming from the west! KH6 was also very strong.
 
I've been licensed and continually active since 1977, and do not
recall that I've ever observed prop to EU on 15M at that time of
night, and on that path.
 
It would be interesting to see what others have reported, and to
better understand the cause of this opening.
 
Steve Sacco NN4X Narcoossee, FL EL98jh"

Mike Galler has been off the air for the past 35 years, and notices
increased static, particularly on 80 meters.
 
I replied that one problem which has increased over the past few
decades is RFI from a proliferating number of consumer electronics
devices that radiate lots of garbage, and are non-compliant with FCC
Part 15 rules covering incidental radiation. I am experiencing this
with a nearby rooftop solar electric array which is tied into the
local electric power grid.
 
Noise will increase seasonally as we transition into summer, but one
positive factor is the very low amount of geomagnetic activity.
This is related to very low solar activity, and has contributed to
favorable conditions on 160 meters.
 
On May 29, K2KA of Westford, MA (FN42) wrote:
 
"Yesterday we had another epic opening to EU on 6M, FT8, NE only.
 
Many many signals from EU. I worked TK5MH for a new one and printed
ZB2GI but did not work, it would have been a new one.
 
It started before 2000z and went for an hour or more. Signals were
strong and steady. +00 to -10 on average. Even on my modest
station: M2 6M5XHP at 40 ft."
 
For more information concerning radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
 
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
 
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
 
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
 
Sunspot numbers for May 28 through June 3, 2020 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 11,
0, and 12, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 67.5, 69.6, 70,
70.8, 69.2, 70.4, and 70, with a mean of 69.6. Estimated planetary
A indices were 4, 3, 14, 4, 6, 7, and 4, with a mean of 6. Middle
latitude A index was 2, 4, 13, 4, 7, 7, and 3, with a mean of 5.7.
NNNN
/EX